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Topic: Peak oil (Read 749 times)

summerrain
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Peak oil
« Thread Started on Dec 15, 2010, 11:52pm »

So let's say we have hit peak oil and all in authority ain't saying nothing. What will be the first clues to watch for? I always imagined air travel as the first to go! How do you folks see it?

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KevinTheCynic
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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #1 on Dec 16, 2010, 2:07am »

Actually I think the first sign will be an increase in fuel prices for no "apparent" reason but with any government watchdogs keeping silent about it.

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Feere
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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #2 on Dec 16, 2010, 12:10pm »

Yeah that'd probably be it. Might want to trade your vehicle for a diesel and set up a biodiesel still in your garage.

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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #3 on Dec 16, 2010, 6:07pm »

I'd be curious to know what industry is the largest user of crude oil. I know a lot goes into the production of gasoline, but is that the biggest use of it?

If there are other industries that also use a lot of oil, then start looking for changes in their processes as well.

Ah, ok, maybe this will help
[image]

So yeah, prices of fuel products will probably be your best indicator of a shortage I'd say.

Or I guess when the US, Russia and China all start invading and taking over oil producing countries that might be an indicator also. That would definitely happen before we'd actually see any industry actually run out of oil.

« Last Edit: Dec 16, 2010, 6:12pm by MEGATØN »

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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #4 on Dec 17, 2010, 12:34am »

Dec 16, 2010, 6:07pm, MEGATØN wrote:

Or I guess when the US, Russia and China all start invading and taking over oil producing countries that might be an indicator also. That would definitely happen before we'd actually see any industry actually run out of oil.

We're screwed.

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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #5 on Dec 17, 2010, 3:05am »

Dec 17, 2010, 12:34am, Feere wrote:

We're screwed.

Ah, yeah, I get your point.

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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #6 on Dec 17, 2010, 10:46am »

Dec 17, 2010, 3:05am, MEGATØN wrote:

Dec 17, 2010, 12:34am, Feere wrote:

We're screwed.

Ah, yeah, I get your point.

Chuckle.

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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #7 on Dec 29, 2010, 1:51am »

There are a lot of industries that rely on the oil industry. But I'm sure alternatives are there, they just might cost a little more. The oil industry has stopped a lot of stuff that could have toppled or weakened it.

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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #8 on Sept 8, 2012, 6:27pm »

Following the point of peak oil, fuel prices will stop going down and will start going up. (Sound familiar?) I think this happened in the 1980's.

The idea behind peak oil is that the world will no longer be capable of increasing its oil production and it will begin to decline.

We passed that point a long time ago.

The only hope we have is that alternatives arrive a lot quicker than they currently are.

That will mean that the governments will need to stop relying on the money they get from every barrel of oil sold and that oil companies stop lobbying to stop alternatives getting government funding.

It's unlikely that the governments or the oil companies of today would ever be able to change that much.

We await instead, a more painful change, but one that must come.

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Morg308
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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #9 on Sept 9, 2012, 9:51am »

Oil can be made from Coal - the Germans made synthetic fuel and rubber during WWII - it isn't cheap though. We are the Saudi Arabia of coal BTW, but it would mean huge mines all over the country. There is a coal mine that has been on fire back in PA sine the 60's. the town is a ghost town now - they had to evacuate it. They still can't out it out.
Google Centralia Pennsylvania and see what you get.

« Last Edit: Sept 9, 2012, 9:52am by Morg308 »

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matov
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Re: Peak oil
« Reply #10 on Sept 9, 2012, 2:32pm »

Always been a bit wary of this 'peak oil' stuff because for as long as I can remember people have been telling us that its only a matter of years before it runs out and it never seems to.

As Morg has said, WW2 Germany produced oil from coal and much like his part of the US, here in the UK we are sitting on massive reserves of coal.

My understanding of oil production is that there is two fundamental misunderstandings about it.

The first is that the Earth has plenty of reserves of oil. Its just the stuff that is easily accessed that is perhaps running out and that new techonology means that we should be able to access the more difficult stuff.

Also that production steps up when prices rise. So for exampe there are oil production plants that are just not worth operating if oil falls below a certain price per barrel and that as the price rises then more sources come on-line.

Throw in the potential reserves still in places like Siberia and under both poles and the issue is more about accessing it.

The second is that what is problamatic is that refining capacity is limited. The oil is there but the ability to turn that into usuable products are limited. Throw in increased demand from places such as China, India and Brazil and you have an increasing amount of consumers chasing a limited final supply.

Of course oil will run out one day but its a lot further down the line than people think and the truth is that we do have alternatives. What needs to happen is that politicians are weaned off the tax they can charge on the stuff. If we all just paid the base price then nobody would be batting an eye lid.

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